Bear Cross on Key Indicator Could Push Bitcoin Price to $7,300

Bitcoin remains pinned below $8K as the 128 and 111-day moving average are on the verge of a bearish cross which could drop the price below $7,700.

At the moment, not too much is happening with Bitcoin’s (BTC) price action. The price continues to drop and a series of lower highs occur even as bullish news hits the press week after week. The news of Bakkt Bitcoin futures trading volume increasing by 796% failed to positively impact Bitcoin price and Fidelity Investments’ announcement that it has launched crypto custodial services also did little for the market. 

Daily crypto market data

Daily crypto market data. Source: Coin360

The general sentiment amongst Bitcoin traders seems relatively unenthusiastic and many traders view Bitcoin’s current price action as an opportunity for accumulation at $7,800 and below. 

This conclusion is supported by the Crypto Fear and Greed Index (CFGI) which currently shows investor’s fear level as being flat throughout the month of October. If the $7,800 support fails to hold and Bitcoin drops to $7,300 and below, then one would expect the fear index to rise. 

Crypto Fear & Greed Index

Crypto Fear & Greed Index Source: Alternative.me

As Bitcoin’s price gradually sinks lower, traders appear to have turned their appetites elsewhere. Earlier this week crypto market analyst Crypto Michael tweeted that altcoins have quietly posted amazing gains since bottoming in September. 

Below are the top altcoin performers compared against Bitcoin: 

ETH +36%

XRP +50%

XLM +43%

ZRX +170%

LINK +98%

With that said, Bitcoin is again approaching an important point and it seems likely that volatility could increase over the next 24 to 48-hours. Let’s take a closer look at the charts to see where Bitcoin stands. 

Bitcoin is bearish on nearly all time frames

BTC USD daily chart

BTC USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

As shown by the daily chart, Bitcoin price is approaching the double bottom at $7,775 and $7,714. As mentioned previously, a drop below these levels could see the price slink down to $7,300. 

The pattern of lower highs could eventually give way to lower lows as was demonstrated in September when Bitcoin’s price was in the low $9,000s. Multiple retests of supports tend to give way to downside breaks and this could be weighing on investors’ appetite for making purchases around the $7,800 area. 

One will also notice that the 200-day moving average has flattened and Bitcoin price continues to peel away from the indicator which many traders describe as being crucial. 

BTC USD weekly chart

BTC USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView

On the weekly time frame the 111-day moving average lines up with the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level at $6,600 and the volume profile visible range (VPVR) also shows an increase in purchasing volume at this price.

Bitcoin needs to overcome $8,450 followed by last week’s high at $8,835 to turn the ship around. A drop below $7,300 could drop Bitcoin as low as $6,720 which aligns with the 111-day moving average and a high volume node on the VPVR. 

The weekly Stoch RSI still shows a bull cross which is a slightly encouraging sign.

Longer-term moving average provide insight

Earlier this week market analyst Philip Swift suggested that it was time to pay closer attention to the longer-term moving averages and he pointed out that: 

“When these two moving averages cross it causes a significant directional market move…as seen here the last two times they crossed…and they are about to cross again!”

BTC USD daily chart

BTC USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

Currently, on the daily time frame, the 111-day moving average and the 128-day moving average are on the verge of crossing. Also, shown by the chart below, Swift points out that moving average crosses between the 128-day moving average and the 111-day moving average led to significant trend reversals during the 2018 bear market. 

BTC USD daily chart

BTC USD daily chart. Source: Philip Swift

BTC USD daily chart

BTC USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

As the week progressed, buy and sell volume has slowly tapered off and the Bollinger Bands have tightened as price constricts to a narrowing range. These are all indicators that the price is on the verge of making a move. 

Throughout 2019 high volume spikes tended to occur on weekends near the weekly close so here we find ourselves in yet another familiar trading predicament. Some traders have pointed to the bullish divergence currently seen on the daily moving average convergence divergence (MACD) as a sign of positive price action for Bitcoin but the MACD is also on the verge of dropping below the signal line. 

Traders who swear by the MACD should keep an eye on this impending convergence, along with the MACD histogram to see if it drops below zero and flashes pink.   

Over the past two weeks Bitcoin has frequently revisited the zone around the double bottom and while this shows that there is buying interest at this price, failure to rise above $8,000 to $8,500 also shows that sellers wait overhead. The near-equal buy and sell volume on the VPVR also supports this interpretation. 

Looking forward

Lately, not much has changed with Bitcoin’s market structure and the price seems to be ranging. Lower lows have yet to be set but if the price below the support areas (dotted lines) on the daily chart the situation could rapidly change. 

As mentioned earlier, Bitcoin bulls need to push the price to $8,450 and then knock out last week’s high at $8,835 to flip the short-term trend bullish. Until then, it seems likely that traders will be taking up positions in the larger cap altcoins. 

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of (@horushughes) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Ledger Nano S Question

When using Ledger Live and attempting to send ethereum to Coinbase pro it won’t let me. It says that I need to update my ethereum application. I have ethereum 1 legacy application. When attempting to update it won’t let me. Saying “wrong device or passphrase for ‘ethereum 1 (legacy)” Can someone provide some insight on how to access my ethereum. I will tip once issue is resolved. When trying to update it says no ethereum accounts to update. Thank you

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Weekly Forecast: Vulnerable Below $8K-$8.2K

  • There was a steady decline in bitcoin price below the $8,200 support against the US Dollar.
  • The price is currently trading below $8,000 and it remains at a risk of more losses.
  • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $8,100 on the 4-hours chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The price must climb above $8,100 and $8,200 for bullish continuation in the near term.

Bitcoin price is showing bearish signs below $8,000 against the US Dollar. BTC could extend its decline below the $7,800 support area in the near term.

Bitcoin Price Weekly Analysis (BTC)

In the past few days, BTC followed a bearish path below the $8,400 and $8,250 levels against the US Dollar. The BTC/USD pair even settled below the $8,200 support and the 100 simple moving average (4-hours). Finally, there was a break below the $8,000 support and a new monthly low was formed near $7,822. The price is currently consolidating losses and is trading below the $8,000 support.

An immediate resistance is near the $8,000 level or the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $8,475 swing high to $7,822 low. On the upside, there are many hurdles near the $8,100 and $8,200 levels. Moreover, there is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $8,100 on the 4-hours chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Besides, the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $8,475 swing high to $7,822 low is also near the $8,150 level. Finally, 100 simple moving average (4-hours) is positioned near the $8,200 level. Therefore, bitcoin price must surpass the $8,100 and $8,200 resistance levels to start a decent recovery. Additionally, a close above the $8,200 barrier and the 100 SMA is needed for more upsides.

On the downside, the key support is near the $7,800 level. If there is a downside break below the $7,800 support, the price could continue to decline in the near term. The next major support is near the $7,500 level, below which there is a risk of more losses towards $7,200.

Bitcoin Price Weekly Analysis (BTC)

Looking at the chart, bitcoin price is clearly trading in a bearish zone below the $8,000 pivot level and the $8,200 resistance. Therefore, a convincing break above $8,000 and a follow through above $8,200 is required for a strong recovery. If not, the price is likely to test the $7,500 support area.

Technical indicators

4 hours MACD – The MACD for BTC/USD is slowly moving back into the bearish zone.

4 hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is currently recovering and it could break the 40 level.

Major Support Level – $7,800

Major Resistance Level – $8,200

The post Bitcoin (BTC) Price Weekly Forecast: Vulnerable Below $8K-$8.2K appeared first on NewsBTC.

Former IBM, Google Russia Exec Joins Blockchain Firm Credits as CBO

Former IBM and Google Russia executive Jennifer Trelewicz joins blockchain platform Credits as its new chief business officer.

Former Google Russia chief technology officer Jennifer Trelewicz has joined blockchain platform Credits (CS) as its new chief business officer (CBO).

According to an official announcement published on Oct. 11, Trelewicz’s first experience working with blockchain was during her time as the CEO of Russian technology startup S7 TechLab. 

In the past, she also worked as the director of IBM’s systems and technology laboratory and the director of risks and market data at Deutsche Bank.

Focused on new partnerships

Potential collaboration with major companies such as IBM is now among the key growth opportunities for Credits, Trelewicz added. In fact, she explicitly stated that her main objective in the company will be to develop new partnerships:

“I will be nurturing and developing our relationships with partners, clients, and advisors worldwide. As well, I put a high priority on building our channel partnerships, including with integrators. […] IBM is an excellent partner for complex solutions projects, and they have a worldwide channel for enterprise clients.”

Previously, Credits announced that it had joined the New Vision Technology project of Chinese technology giant Lenovo in September 2018.

As Cointelegraph reported on Oct. 2, blockchain and cryptocurrency investment firm Multicoin Capital hired a former Google product manager as one of its new investment principals.

Crypto News From the German-Speaking World: Oct. 13–19 in Review

Cointelegraph presents a weekly digest of news from the German-speaking world, with help from Cointelegraph auf Deutsch.

The German-speaking world has seen another week of events in the crypto industry, with a new survey revealing that 27% of Germans are interested in using Facebook’s planned Libra stablecoin, which has been discussed all over the world since its announcement in June 2019. Despite existing criticism of Libra, global regulators do not plan to ban either Facebook’s crypto initiative or other stablecoin projects, the European Central Bank (ECB) director claimed earlier this week.

Here is the past week of crypto and blockchain news in review, as originally reported by Cointelegraph auf Deutsch.

Lykke launches utility token to bet against crypto markets

As reported by Cointelegraph auf Deutsch on Oct. 14, Swiss blockchain startup Lykke recently launched a new token designed to track the performance of the top 25 cryptocurrencies by market cap as well as to put bets on falling prices in the crypto market. Dubbed Short LyCI, the new Lykke’s utility token reportedly includes 73% of Bitcoin (BTC), 9.6% of Ether (ETH) and 5.9% of XRP.

Lykke founder Richard Olsen, who is also a co-founder of private financial services firm Oanda, noted that Short LyCI is a simple investment product to manage risks and hedge exposure during downturns on crypto markets.

Ormera, new platform for electricity billing

On Oct. 14, Swiss companies PostFinance and Energie Wasser Bern (EWB) announced the launch of Ormera, a new startup providing a tool for measuring and automatic billing of self-generated electricity. Based on blockchain technology, Ormera’s platform intends to cut administrative costs by supporting effective use of energy generated in decentralized production, EWB said in the announcement. 

Combining internet-of-things and blockchain components, Ormera targets energy supply companies, energy and real estate service providers and property management firms, the report notes.

Bauwens invests in Germany’s first provider of real estate tokens

German real estate giant Bauwens invested in the Foundation Group, which is known as the first-ever provider of real estate-based security token offerings regulated by major German financial authority, the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin). As reported by Cointelegraph auf Deutsch, Bauwens intends to expand its expertise in the new business field of digitizing real estate investments by investing in the Foundation Group.

Bundesbank board member: stablecoins underpin the importance of central banks

As reported on Oct. 16, a board member of the German Bundesbank recently declared that the emergence of stablecoins — cryptocurrencies pegged to fiat currencies to provide a stable value — underpins the importance of central banks. In a speech on Oct. 8 in South Africa, Burkhard Balz claimed that stablecoins benefit from a kind of indirect stability, which could be interpreted as a complement to the successful and stability-oriented monetary policy by central banks.

Libra news

On Oct. 18, Cointelegraph reported on a new survey showing that 27% of German people are planning to use Facebook’s planned cryptocurrency Libra. Powered by French online survey firm Toluna, the survey shows 73% of German residents have completely rejected Libra, with 42% saying that they do not trust Facebook, while 31% of respondents noted that they only believe in centralized currencies.

Also on Thursday, BaFin’s president Felix Hufeld expressed concerns over Libra, claiming that Facebook’s planned cryptocurrency sees a number of unresolved questions and represents a parallel currency created privately.

Despite existing concerns, global financial regulators are not planning to ban either Facebook’s Libra or other stablecoins, ECB director Benoit Coeure said in an interview on Oct. 17. However, Coeure stressed that such initiatives will have to meet high regulatory standards prescribed by the ECB.

“Weak” Ethereum Price May See 20% Drop Before Breakout

Saturday, so far, has been a relatively neutral day for the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a majority of other large caps saw effectively zero losses or gains on the day, while trading volumes across the board tanked.

Related Reading: Crypto Tidbits: Fidelity Expands Bitcoin Ops, Ripple’s XRP Sales Fall, Grayscale Sees Growing Altcoin Demand

Despite this non-action, analysts are currently charting a move lower for Ethereum (ETH/Ether), citing bearish technicals and an overall lull in the broader crypto industry.

Ethereum Price Looks Weak, Analysts Reckon

Prominent trader Jacob Canfield recently noted that Ethereum’s chart looks rather weak, looking to the fact that it fell out of a bear flag, failed to break above the upper bound of a falling wedge, and is looking to retest a key horizontal support.

He claims that a move to and consecutive break of $165, the horizontal support aforementioned, may result in a 15% to 20% collapse to $142, which is where ETH’s next key support lies.

Canfield’s analysis is eerily similar to that posted by The Crypto Dog. As reported by this outlet earlier, Dog also believes that ETH is in the midst of a massive falling wedge that originates from the June peak. “That mini-falling wedge played out on $ETH, looks like a larger one may be forming now,” he wrote, referencing a chart he posted.

Not only is Ethereum looking weak but Bitcoin is too. Case in point, a “death cross,” which is when a short-term moving average crosses below a long-term moving average for an asset, is forming on the Bitcoin chart. 

Should this technical pattern come to fruition on Bitcoin’s chart, it will show that bears have control of this market. As a trader pointed out, the last BTC death cross, which was observed in 2018, marked the commencement of a long-term price correction.

With the two assets being strongly correlated, a move lower in the price of Bitcoin could lead to an equally harrowing drop for Ether. On the other hand, a surprise spike higher in BTC‘s price could result in Ethereum showing some strength.

Strong Fundamental Trend

While Ethereum’s price may be on thin ice, the project’s fundamentals are still rock solid. Cryptocurrency investor Spencer Noon recently noted that while ETH has collapsed from its all-time high, the amount of value locked in Ethereum-based decentralized finance applications — some say these are the blockchain’s “killer app” — continues to set fresh all-time highs.

Outside of so-called “DeFi”, massive corporations have begun to launch Ethereum blockchain pilots to make their businesses and transactions more efficient. Companies involved include Thomson Reuters (Reuters), IKEA, Fatburger, Morningstar, and Banco Santander.

Related Reading: Bitcoin is Up 83,000% Since Gold Topped in 2012: Bullion vs. BTC
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Bitcoin is Up 83,000% Since Gold Topped in 2012: Bullion vs. BTC

If you’ve been on Crypto Twitter over the past 24 hours, you have likely noticed one Bitcoin-bashing tweet from Peter Schiff. The message, which can be seen below, shows the libertarian investor claiming that BTC’s price chart “looks horrible.”

Related Reading: Happy 18 Millionth Bitcoin! BTC Scarcity Implies Large Price Rally

Schiff, in fact, remarked that the “(bear) flag that followed the recent breakdown projects a move to $6,000,” which would imply a 25% drop from current levels if this move pans out. He even added that not only has Bitcoin fallen below a flag, “but we are [also] close to completing the right shoulder of a head and shoulders top … that projects a collapse below $2,000.”

Although Schiff’s technical analysis might be right, many in the cryptocurrency community have been quick to rebut his sentiment that Bitcoin is inferior to gold.

Bitcoin Has (Dramatically) Outpaced Gold

Over the past five-odd years, the chief executive of Schiff Gold, Peter Schiff, has been trashing Bitcoin. Over the years he has called it many things, but one of the bullion proponent’s main theses is that BTC is an asset with no inherent value that will eventually trend to zilch.

So far, this hasn’t been the case. In fact, analyst Rampage recently posted to Twitter that since one ounce of gold topped out at $1,800 seven years, Bitcoin has appreciated by 83,331%. In that same time frame, gold fell by 20%.

Rampage isn’t the first to have drawn attention to what critics of Schiff see as flaws in the “Bitcoin is inferior to gold” argument.

Anthony Pompliano, a former Facebook team member that has since become a cryptocurrency investor, accentuated that Bitcoin is the best performing asset of the past decade, before adding that the asset’s scarcity and relative lack of penetration is likely to allow it to grow rapidly in the years to come.

Of course, there is no guarantee that the cryptocurrency market will continue to shoot higher in the years to come. Yet, critics have deemed Schiff’s points moot due to his long history of hating BTC as it appreciated higher and higher.

Related Reading: Crypto Tidbits: Fidelity Expands Bitcoin Ops, Ripple’s XRP Sales Fall, Grayscale Sees Growing Altcoin Demand
Featured Image from Shutterstock

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Telegram Writes Investors to Counter FUD Before Feb. SEC Hearings

Telegram writes investors regarding delayed judgment, anticipating resolution that Grams are not securities February hearings.

In a letter to investors, Telegram encouraged investors to view the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) hearing recently rescheduled for February as “a positive step.”

Cause for optimism

The letter, sent on Oct. 19, briefly reassures investors that the recent rescheduling of hearings until Feb. 18-19 is good news while maintaining that the company will not be distributing Gram tokens until that time. In their own words: 

“Telegram views this development as a positive step towards resolving this matter through the court system in an expeditious manner, and we and our advisers will be using the time to ensure that Telegram’s position is presented and supported as strongly as possible at the February hearing.”

A conclusive decision?

Telegram’s argument has largely been that its Gram tokens do not qualify as securities and thus do not fall under the purview of the SEC. In the letter, the Telegram team anticipated the February hearings resolving this matter more satisfactorily than the originally scheduled Oct. 24th hearing, writing:

“The February hearing is different from the one previously scheduled for October 24, because in the February hearing Telegram anticipates asking the court to rule on the core argument that Grams are not securities. The October 24 hearing, in contrast, was only to consider whether a delay should have been mandated, without conclusively resolving the core argument.”

The SEC and Telegram

This letter is just the latest in an extensive back-and-forth between the SEC and Telegram surrounding the launch of the latter’s Telegram Open Network and its associated Gram tokens, the distribution of which was the subject of an SEC emergency action on Oct. 11. 

By deeming Gram tokens securities, the SEC labeled their sale in the U.S. — which netted roughly $1.7 billion — an unregistered security offering and thus illegal. Telegram responded with a filing on Oct. 16, refuting the “emergency” nature of the SEC’s complaint and countering by criticizing the commission’s lack of action in the preceding 18 months during which they were aware of the coming launch of TON.

Model That Predicted Bitcoin Price Drop to $8,000: Bears Are Done

The Bitcoin (BTC) bear trend that brought the cryptocurrency from $14,000 to $7,700 is over… according to a price model anyway.

In early-August, a cryptocurrency investment boutique unveiled a price prediction model that used Facebook’s Prophet machine learning software in Python. BurgerCrypto, as the upstart is called, revealed in their model that they expect Bitcoin to fall to the low-$8,000 region in October.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Price May Buck Bull Trend & Fall by 75% to $2,000, Peter Schiff Warns

At the time the model was published, analysts were calling for BTC to resume its uptrend to fresh all-time highs beyond $20,000. But, as you likely well know, BurgerCrypto’s machine learning-based model turned out to be correct, with BTC falling as low as $7,700 earlier this month as bear pressure mounted.

What’s interesting is that the same trend-centric model shows that Bitcoin is poised to return to a five-digit price point.

Bitcoin Price to Head Higher

The model in question that BurgerCrypto created is derived from Bitcoin’s historical returns and the stock to flow ratio and forecasted by Facebook’s Prophet. As can be seen below, the model shows that Bitcoin bottoms in October, begins to trend higher into Halloween/early-November, then surges into the all-time high.

This model coincides with a similar one created by Twitter analyst Data Dater. Per previous reports from NewsBTC, their model says that the downtrend has decisively ended and that Bitcoin will surmount $10,000 once again by mid-November — just a month away.

The fundamentals seemingly back this resumed price appreciation.

In a recent CNN interview, Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz gave a number of reasons why Bitcoin is likely to see a growth in demand. These include negative interest rates, geopolitical unrest, and mistrust in centralized systems.

As covered extensively by this outlet, negative interest rates, which will be passed onto the consumers through negative-yielding savings accounts, will force consumers to look for alternatives like Bitcoin.

Geopolitical unrest and mistrust in centralized systems, caused by growing encroachment on freedoms and 2008’s Great Recession, will push investors to look for alternative systems, which many believe will be underpinned by blockchain technologies and thus Bitcoin.

Novogratz has also stated that institutional involvement in the cryptocurrency space will drive this space to new heights. Just look to Fidelity Investments, which just revealed that it’s rolling out its Bitcoin custody and trade execution services to clients with billions of dollars of assets under management.

Related Reading: Crypto Tidbits: Fidelity Expands Bitcoin Ops, Ripple’s XRP Sales Fall, Grayscale Sees Growing Altcoin Demand
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