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Bitcoin futures break $50K: Why BTC worth is primed for one more leg up

02/16/2021

The worth of Bitcoin broke $50,000 on futures exchanges and a number of other knowledge factors counsel the U.S. session may see the rally proceed.

The worth of Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed $50,000 for the primary time in historical past throughout main futures exchanges, together with Binance Futures.

Nonetheless, on spot exchanges, like Coinbase and Binance, the worth of Bitcoin rejected intently under $50,000.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Binance Futures). Supply: Tradingview

Why extra upside is probably going

On Feb. 16, the worth of Bitcoin reached as excessive as $49,556 on Coinbase, marking its second try at breaking previous the $50,000 resistance space.

Shortly after hitting $49,556, BTC noticed a steep pullback, declining by round 3.5% inside a number of hours.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Younger Ju defined that Bitcoin’s wrestle to interrupt previous $50,000 is about “Coinbase whales (USD) vs. Stablecoin whales (USDT).”

Coinbase premium index. Supply: CryptoQuant

Ki emphasised that there was a destructive Coinbase premium on the time Bitcoin rejected $50,000 within the morning. For BTC to cleanly break previous it, he defined that the destructive premium needs to be “cooled down.”

Because the preliminary rejection, the Coinbase premium has stabilized, reaching parity with Binance’s Tether worth.

Coinbase usually has the next Bitcoin worth than Tether on most days, however the premium has recovered from destructive to impartial.

U.S. session may end in newfound momentum

With the Coinbase premium recovering, Lex Moskovski, a quant dealer and a cryptocurrency investor, mentioned the U.S. session may catalyze Bitcoin’s new rally.

Theoretically, the Coinbase premium ought to return throughout the U.S. session, as consumers within the U.S. could be extra lively throughout market hours.

Therefore, if the premium returns because the U.S. market opens, the likelihood for the continuation of a Bitcoin rally would enhance. Moskovski mentioned:

“This run as much as $50k retains being dominated by shopping for stress from Binance and others versus Coinbase. That is indicated by a reducing Coinbase premium. Nonetheless, this may occasionally additionally imply that Coinbase consumers be a part of the race when the U.S. wakes up. Let’s examine.”

Moreover, well-liked pseudonymous cryptocurrency dealer Mac mentioned Bitcoin is prone to surpass $50,000 and construct a brand new assist space.

The dealer mentioned a possible state of affairs could be BTC rising above $50,000, correcting to round $42,000, and establishing a brand new assist degree. He mentioned:

“New base about to be constructed on $BTC That is the perfect state of affairs in my books. With the present state of the market we’d faucet $52k, proceed consolidating and go larger.”

Potential Bitcoin state of affairs. Supply: Twitter @Macnbtc

Usually, each merchants and on-chain analysts seemingly anticipate the worth of Bitcoin to surpass $50,000 within the close to time period.

Nonetheless, with the funding fee indicating an overcrowded futures market, merchants count on Bitcoin to right shortly after reaching $52,000.

If this state of affairs performs out, it will be akin to BTC’s response at $42,000 when it first broke above it. This was adopted by a pointy correction to round $29,000 earlier than the worth rebounded to new highs.